Modelling & Forecasting
A broad range of business, regulatory and policy problems can be tackled using economic modelling and forecasting techniques. Examples of the types of study we undertake include:
- Demand/sales modelling and forecasting
- Market simulation
- Product / service optimisation
- Input price forecasting
- Efficiency analysis
Our work often involves the use of stated preference research (e.g. choice modelling / choice-based conjoint) coupled with an analysis of market data on the features, prices and sales, or market shares, of alternatives available on the market to develop a market simulator tool that can then be used for simulation, scenario forecasting and product/service optimisation.
We also undertake econometric modelling studies of cost data to measure relative efficiency and econometric modelling of demand / sales for derivation of elasticities and for forecasting.
- Simulation and forecasting of the demand for, and revenues from, toll roads and bridges in US and Australian metropolitan areas, via the use of stated preference market research coupled with market data
- Simulation and forecasting of the demand for private health insurance in the UK, via the use of stated preference market research coupled with market data
- Modelling of the potential impact of fares simplifications on demand for rail travel and ticket type choice in the UK, via the use of stated preference market research coupled with market data
- Stated preference research to estimate bus passengers’ price elasticity of demand and preferences between various ticketing options.
- Optimisation of parcel delivery services and market scenario sales and revenue forecasting via development of a market simulation tool based on stated preference market research coupled with market data.
- Rail demand modelling, via stated preference research coupled with market data, to explore of the sensitivity of demand to car fuel prices and other aspects related to the competitive interaction between car and rail.
- Development of a simulator tool, via stated preference market research coupled with market data, for a UK financial services provider to predict the impact on market share and revenue of introducing a suite of new accounts.
- Development of a model for the fair allocation of the costs of water and sewerage services across household, industry and commercial customers for the determination of bills.
- Stochastic frontier analysis of European air navigation service providers’ costs for evaluation of their cost efficiency.
- Measurement of the efficiency levels of UK water companies’ operating expenditures using a range of econometric models.
- Derivation of medium-term econometric projections for the national Construction Output Price Index using an error correction model.
- Medium-term econometric forecasts of industrial water demand for a UK water company.
- Medium-term econometric forecasts for opex and capex input prices as an input into an analysis of the scope for efficiency in the UK water and sewerage industry.